Pre-Christmas shopping discounts ‘could hit 50%’

Sales discounts on clothing and products in the lead up to Christmas could be the biggest in almost ten years, according to one consultancy.

Deloitte, which has monitored the prices of 800,000 products online and in shops since 2011, expects average discounts to hit 50% by Christmas Eve.

Its forecast came as data provider Springboard said shopper numbers were lower than the same time last year.

The firm said shoppers were waiting for deeper discounts before buying.

“Consumers clearly took advantage of early discounts to purchase Christmas presents, and are now waiting for discounts to deepen once again in the days immediately before Christmas as retailers do their best to shift unsold stock,” said Diane Wehrle, insights director at Springboard.

Deloitte said current discounts ranged from 8% to 78% with the biggest discounts on clothing, but said the coming weekend – the last before Christmas – could see “a tipping point in promotions”.

The consultancy said the price cuts had been driven by UK shops discounting earlier in the season due to Black Friday – the day after the American holiday of Thanksgiving, when retailers drop their prices for 24 hours. The tradition has increasingly been adopted by UK retailers too.

Deloitte said this had created a long run-up for pre-Christmas discounting, with prices falling steadily in the lead up to Christmas Day.

“Consumers have come to expect an increasing amount of pre-Christmas discounting. The result is a blending of promotions, one seeping into the next, and a steady price decline rather than a steep Boxing Day drop, reminiscent of Christmases past,” said Jason Gordon, consumer analytics partner at Deloitte.

Post Christmas, Deloitte is expecting deeper discounts, with average reductions of up to 54% on Boxing Day.

Bank of England keeps interest rates on hold

The Bank of England has kept interest rates on hold at 0.75% but indicated it may cut the cost of borrowing if global economic growth fails to recover or Brexit uncertainties persist.

It said the UK economy was expected to pick up from its current weakness.

However, the Bank said it would monitor companies’ and households’ reactions to Brexit as well as global growth.

The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 7-2 in favour of keeping the official rate on hold.

“If global growth fails to stabilise or if Brexit uncertainties remain entrenched, monetary policy may need to reinforce the expected recovery in GDP growth and inflation,” the committee said in a statement.

Economists were divided over the direction of rates.

Dean Turner, an economist at UBS Wealth Management, said: “After last week’s election result, the short-term clarity we have on Brexit could give a lift to economic sentiment, especially for businesses. A modest fiscal easing in the forthcoming budget could also push things along a little.

“Overall, though, as attention turns to the December 2020 end of transition deadline, the mood will likely remain subdued and growth weak. We expect that the committee will move further towards a rate cut in 2020 and a quarter point easing in May.”

But Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “All told, we still think that interest rates are much more likely to rise next year than to fall.

“But as both the identity of the next [Bank of England] Governor and the willingness of the Prime Minister to sacrifice the economy to achieve Brexit by his timetable are unknown, the outlook for monetary policy remains exceptionally cloudy.”

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